On October 27th, the run-off voting for Lithuania's parliamentary elections (a unicameral system combining single-seat constituencies and proportional representation) took place. Along with the first-round vote held on October 13th, the center-left opposition party, the Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP), secured 52 of 141 seats, becoming the largest party but falling short of a majority. Meanwhile, the center-right ruling party, Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD), led by Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, experienced a significant decline in seats, dropping from 50 to 28.
Despite the economic achievements of the Šimonytė administration, including double-digit income growth and the lowest inflation rate among EU countries, public dissatisfaction with worsening healthcare services and widening economic disparities has gradually eroded its support.
The third-largest party is Nemuno Aušra, often described as an emerging populist party, which secured 20 seats. However, the LSDP has ruled out forming a coalition with Nemuno Aušra. Instead, it is expected to establish a coalition government with the center-left party, the Union of Democrats 'For Lithuania' (DSVL, 14 seats), and the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union (LVŽS, 8 seats).
Even with the anticipated shift in power from the TS-LKD to the LSDP—should the coalition be successfully formed—there is little difference between the two parties in their policies on Russia and defense spending. Thus, Lithuania's firm stance toward Russia is unlikely to change.

In the Austrian general election held on September 29, the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) won 29.1% of the vote, narrowly defeating the center-right Austrian People's Party (ÖVP), led by Prime Minister Nehammer, to become the leading party. The FPÖ's anti-immigrant stance and its claim that elites are enacting policies that don't serve the interests of citizens likely drew support from voters seeking to overturn the status quo. The FPÖ, founded in the 1950s by former Nazi party members, predates most far-right parties. While the party has previously formed a coalition government with the ÖVP, this is the first time it has secured the top position in a national election. Its second consecutive victory, following the European Parliament election, further establishes its position as a major party challenging the ÖVP as well as center-left Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ), which have often been involved in grand coalitions. This win also boosted momentum for Euroskeptic parties, such as Hungary's Fidesz and the Czech ANO, which have been strengthening ties in EU politics.

Since neither party achieved a majority, coalition negotiations are now underway. The ÖVP, now the second-leading party, holds a key role in these discussions. While the ÖVP’s immigration policies are relatively similar to those of the FPÖ, it has indicated that it will reject FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl's bid to become prime minister, though it has not ruled out a coalition with them. It remains to be seen whether the ÖVP will join forces with the SPÖ and the Austrian Greens, who hold fewer seats than the ÖVP, or whether it will pursue a coalition with the FPÖ while rejecting the appointment of Kickl as prime minister.

In Sri Lanka's presidential election held on September 22, Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the leftist People's Liberation Front (JVP) won with approximately 42% of the vote, followed by Sajith Premadasa of the centrist United People's Power (SJB) with 33%. The incumbent center-right president, Ranil Wickremesinghe, was not re-elected. In Sri Lanka’s presidential election system, voters rank their first, second, and third choices, and if no candidate receives a majority of first-choice votes, second and third-choice votes are recounted to determine the winner. Thus, between the top two candidates, Dissanayake and Premadasa, Dissanayake ultimately won with a majority. This election marks the first time that a recount has been conducted in Sri Lanka to decide the winner.

Sri Lanka had endured a long civil war with the Tamil population, after which the Rajapaksa brothers, credited with ending the conflict, held political power. However, excessive loans from China and poor economic management, including inefficient infrastructure investments, led to economic collapse, and then President Rajapaksa fled the country. Ranil Wickremesinghe, tasked with stabilizing the crisis, managed to negotiate debt relief with the IMF and secure support from Japan and India. However, Wickremesinghe lost public support as his austerity measures increased the people's hardships. Dissanayake won the election by advocating for poverty elimination, anti-corruption measures, and a review of the debt agreement with the IMF and other countries. Although Dissanayake has stated he will adhere to the IMF agreement for the time being, debt repayment may become less of a priority as the government eases austerity and redirects wealth to the public. Additionally, while Dissanayake has distanced himself from China, which did not provide assistance during the 2022 economic crisis despite being a major creditor, a worsening fiscal situation may present China with an opportunity to reassert influence.

Jordan underwent electoral reform in 2022, aiming to shift from tribal-centered politics to party politics, and the general election held on September 10 was the first under the new law. 41 of the 138 parliamentary seats were contested among the 30 approved political parties and a quota was set for female legislators at 15 to 18 seats. However, the remaining seats are heavily allocated to rural tribes, resulting in limited representation for politically active urban areas, particularly those with high concentrations of Palestinian refugees. With a voter turnout of 32.25%, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamic Action Front (IAF), which previously held only five seats, made significant gains, winning 31 seats and emerging as the leading party, though it fell short of a parliamentary majority. The second-largest party, the moderate royalist National Charter Party (NCP), secured 21 seats, while the centrist liberal Eradah Party won 19 seats. This left 36 seats for various factions and 31 seats for independent parties, thus preserving the dominance of existing political parties. Under the current system, where the king retains strong powers, including appointing the prime minister and dissolving parliament, the parliament's role is limited. The IAF's success stemmed from its alignment with Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated organizations, which have ties to Hamas, an armed group in the Gaza Strip, and from organizing protests against Israel, thereby gaining support from the Palestinian population. Following the election, King Abdullah II dismissed Prime Minister Bisher Khasawneh and appointed Jafar Hassan as prime minister; however, the cabinet largely retained members from the previous administration, and the technocrat-focused governance structure saw little change.

Venezuela's presidential election on July 28 was won by Nicolas Maduro, who has held office since 2013, with 53.67% of the vote, according to the electoral commission. However, pre-election polls showed overwhelming support for the opposition candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, and many countries have pointed to large-scale electoral fraud. Protests erupted in response, with the González camp independently monitoring polling stations and reporting 30.5% for Maduro and 69.5% for González. Maduro declined third-party election observers, such as those from the United Nations. In Venezuela, where the dictatorship of Hugo Chávez took hold in 1999 and Maduro has continued an authoritarian political system, the electoral commission has become part of this system, eroding election integrity. The country is experiencing hyperinflation reportedly at 2 million percent per year and faces economic collapse. Sanctions by the U.S. have blocked crude oil exports, Venezuela’s main revenue source, further compounding the economic crisis. Public dissatisfaction with the continued dictatorship with electoral fraud is mounting, and social unrest persists post-election. If police and military forces, which uphold security, decide to side with citizens, the future of the Maduro administration could be in jeopardy.

Shortly after voting closed in Rwanda's presidential and general elections on July 15, provisional results were announced showing incumbent President Paul Kagame as the winner with 99.15% of the vote. The two candidates opposing him were also the opponents in the 2017 election, in which Kagame won by similar margins, with each receiving less than 1% of the vote. The Rwandan Civil War in 1994 led to an ethnic genocide, resulting in the loss of 800,000 citizens. Kagame, who ended the conflict, became the effective leader and has held the presidency since 2000. While he is credited with achieving an average economic growth rate of 7.2% between 2012 and 2022, Kagame also faces allegations, including the theft of minerals from the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo, falsely exported as Rwandan products. The dictatorial regime has remained unchanged, with the elimination of any strong opposition candidates and the rejection of appeals by the courts. It will take some time before the results of the general election held on the same day are known.

The Syrian parliamentary election was held on July 15th amid the ongoing civil war, but it only took place in areas controlled by the Assad administration, with 8,151 polling stations. Voting did not occur in regions governed by anti-government protesters in the northwest, areas controlled by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in the northeast, or among the millions of refugees who have fled the country (expatriate voting is allowed only in presidential elections). Reports of fraud surfaced, including instances of individuals voting multiple times, and some polling station administrators faced lawsuits. Against this backdrop, voter turnout was 38%. All candidates from the Ba’ath Party, led by President Bashar al-Assad, were elected, securing 185 out of the 250 total seats. According to the constitution, President Assad can remain in power only until 2028, but it is possible that he may attempt to extend his rule by amending the constitution.

In response to the rise of the far-right National Rally (French: Rassemblement National, RN), which became the largest party in the EU Parliamentary Election held in June, President Macron dissolved parliament and called for a general election. While his true intentions remain unclear, it is possible that this move was aimed at preventing the RN from winning the 2027 presidential and legislative elections. President Macron may have calculated that, even if the RN gains influence through this election, he can manage the party as long as he remains in office, thereby exposing its lack of governance capacity. In France, presidents are directly elected and remain in office even if they dissolve parliament. General elections are held in two rounds. Candidates are elected if they secure a majority in the first round; otherwise, a second round is held among those who receive more than 12.5% of the vote.
In the first round of voting on June 30th, the right-wing coalition led by RN garnered 33.21% of the vote, while the left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front (NFP)—which includes the far-left France Unbowed (French: La France Insoumise, LFI), the Socialist Party, and the Ecologists—received 28.21%. The centrist coalition (Ensemble), which includes Renaissance led by President Macron, secured 21.28%, and the center-right Republican Party gained 6.57%. Of the 577 constituencies, 76 candidates were elected outright in the first round. In the remaining 501 constituencies, there were 306 where three or more candidates received over 12.5% of the vote (compared to just 8 in the 2022 general election). Since the far-right RN was more likely to win in constituencies where votes were split between the centrist Ensemble and the left-wing NFP, the two groups agreed to cooperate. As a result, third-placed candidates from Ensemble (81) and the NFP (126) decided to withdraw in these races.

Despite these efforts, no coalition secured a majority: the NFP won 182 seats, Ensemble 168, and RN 143 (289 seats are needed for a majority in the 577-seat parliament). The Prime Minister is expected to come from the NFP, the largest group, but there is little room for compromise within the NFP itself, as tensions between the far-left LFI, the centrist-left Socialist Party, and the Ecologists remain high. As a result, it is believed that President Macron is aiming to form a broad coalition, ranging from the Socialist Party to the center-right Republican Party, while excluding LFI and the far-right RN. In any case, “cohabitation,” where the president and prime minister belong to different parties, seems inevitable, leading to political instability in France.

The British general election was held on July 4th, marking the first since December 2019. It resulted in a landslide victory for the Labour Party, which secured a majority of seats, leading to a regime change. The UK Prime Minister had been unable to dissolve Parliament until the completion of the five-year parliamentary term due to the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, which was enacted during the coalition government of the Conservative Party and Liberal Democrats. The act was abolished with the enactment of the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. This election was the first to be held after this abolition, following Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s May 22nd announcement to dissolve Parliament and call for a national election. Public opinion polls had consistently shown the Labour Party leading the ruling Conservative Party by nearly 20% before the election. Reflecting these pre-election predictions, the Labour Party achieved a decisive victory, securing 412 seats—more than doubling its previous 176—while the Conservative Party faced a historic defeat, dropping from 365 seats to just 121. The rise of Reform UK, which garnered 14.3% of the overall vote but secured only 5 seats, contributed to the Conservatives’ losses. Reform UK, led by right-wing politician Nigel Farage, significantly eroded the Conservative vote. Additionally, the Scottish National Party (SNP), which had previously dominated in Scotland, suffered from a scandal, driving many centrist voters towards the Liberal Democrats (who secured 12.2% of the vote and 63 seats) and the Labour Party under Keir Starmer, who had shifted the party towards the center. Following the election, Prime Minister Starmer formed a new Labour government on July 5th, marking the first Labour administration in 14 years, since the tenure of Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

The parliamentary (Majilis) elections in Iran held on March 1st have yet to be finalized due to 45 seats in constituencies, whose voter turnout below 20% being subject to re-vote, out of the total 490 seats. However, conservative factions have overwhelmingly secured a majority of the seats. Rather than the Iranian people choosing conservative factions, it is the result of the Guardian Council, which conducts eligibility reviews of candidates prior to elections (dominated by conservative clerics), disqualifying reformist and moderate candidates across the board. The course of events was similar to the 2021 presidential election, where Ebrahim Raisi became president as a result of the selection process by the Guardian Council. This repetition of patterns has led to disillusionment among the populace regarding the elections. The voter turnout was 41%, the lowest in history, with Tehran seeing a blank ballot rate of 25% among the votes cast, as well as other urban areas seeing similar trends. The “legitimacy of the system based on elections”, which has served as a compound structure of rule by Islamic clerics and republican governance, is being eroded in Iran.

Amid multiple social cleavages of religion, class, and language, Belgium held a general election for the Chamber of Representatives of the Federal Parliament (150 seats) on June 9, 2024, in conjunction with the European Parliament elections. The New Flemish Alliance (N-VA), a center-right opposition party in the northern Flemish region (Dutch-speaking area) that advocates independence for the region, maintained its top position with 24 seats, while the liberal Reformist Movement (MR) won 20 seats in the southern Walloon region (French-speaking area), becoming the second-largest party.

The Northern far-right Vlaams Belang (VB) and the far-left Workers' Party of Belgium (PTB/PVDA) both increased their number of seats; however, VB won only 20 seats, fewer than the N-VA in the same region, while PTB/PVDA won 15 seats. It was not as much of a landslide as anticipated, with the far-right and far-left parties gaining two and three seats, respectively. On the other hand, the northern liberal party, the Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats led by Prime Minister De Croo, won only seven seats (down from 12 before the election), prompting De Croo to announce his resignation. The Ecolo party in the south, which had 13 seats before the election, only gained three seats, and the Groen party in the north lost two seats, down to six, reflecting a similar trend to the European Parliament elections. Belgium holds the world record for taking 541 days to form a cabinet after the 2010 elections. With social divisions further deepening, a lengthy cabinet formation is expected this time as well. The De Croo government, which was a coalition of seven parties, did not include the far-right and far-left parties, which had won slightly less than one-third of the seats, and were excluded from the government. Whether this politics of inclusion and exclusion will continue will be a focal point for the new government.

The European Union (EU) Parliament elections were held from June 6 to 9, with preliminary results released progressively on June 10. The European People's Party (EPP), to which European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen belongs, increased its seats by 14 to 190, while the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) saw a slight decrease. Among the G7 countries, with which Japan places particular emphasis on diplomatic ties, the centrist Renew Europe (RE), to which French President Emmanuel Macron belongs, experienced a sharp decline in seats. Conversely, the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR Group), led by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, gained seats. Although von der Leyen's center-right party, together with the centrist liberal and environmental parties, secured a pro-EU majority, her path to re-election as Commission President remains challenging.

(Presidential election)
In the presidential election held in Mexico, Sheinbaum, the successor of President López Obrador, won with 59.36% of the vote, significantly outpacing the second-place candidate, Gálvez, who received 27.91% of the vote (voter turnout was 95.23%). The administration can be considered solid, with the possibility of amending the constitution through a two-thirds majority in both houses, where the ruling coalition, including the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), holds significant seats. It could be said that Sheinbaum seamlessly inherited the high popularity of President Lopez Obrador who achieved economic growth and improved public services. served as the mayor of Mexico City, she won a safe victory with strong support from the people. As the first female president, the extent of leadership in Mexico, where male-centric values still linger, is a subject of interest. However, considering the high regard for public services tailored to women during her tenure as Mexico City mayor and her efforts in fostering an environment that led to the succession of female mayors, her political acumen is unquestionable.Under the leftist administration, fiscal conditions have deteriorated due to public investment, pension reforms, and favoritism towards state-owned enterprises. Furthermore, the challenge lies in maintaining the free trade agreement (USMCA, formerly NAFTA) with an increasingly protectionist United States and ensuring sustained economic growth. The biggest challenge is the issue of public safety, with instances such as 38 candidates being killed during the parliamentary and local elections held simultaneously with the presidential election. There are also several regions under the control of drug cartels and other criminal groups. Mishandling this issue could potentially destabilize the administration.

(General election)
In the parliamentary elections held concurrently with the presidential election, the coalition of the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), the Green Party, and the Labor Party, to which Sheinbaum belongs, emerged victorious in both houses. In the Senate, they secured 82 seats (out of 128) just falling short of a two-thirds majority, while in the Lower House, they obtained 363 seats (out of 500), surpassing the two-thirds mark. They fell short of the two-thirds majority required for constitutional amendments in both houses of Congress. The opposition coalition, including the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which had held power for 71 years since the founding of the country until 2000, underperformed with 39 seats in the Senate and 111 seats in the Lower House, indicating a declining influence. In the concurrent local elections, an overwhelming victory for MORENA was witnessed, with the party winning in 24 out of 32 states, including the governorships of eight major states. MORENA is a center-left political party, where López Obrador, who does not speak English, represents a traditional left-wing ideology relying on labor unions and focused on wealth redistribution. In contrast, Sheinbaum, a scientist specializing in environmental issues with a degree from the United States, embodies a modern left-wing approach. The divide between these two, representing the old and new left, will likely surface in the future in a congress where a stable majority is held. Particularly, while income improvement through traditional left-wing largesse policies had garnered popularity, it has posed a significant burden on Mexican finances, making internal party consensus on fiscal policy management a crucial challenge. Furthermore, in these parliamentary elections, with 36 candidates assassinated and 175 polling stations closed due to security concerns, the situation demands urgent attention. The challenges facing the ‘unified government’ of MORENA, which controls the presidency and both houses of Congress, are significant.

In the Icelandic presidential election on June 1st, businessman Halla Tómasdóttir triumphed over 11 candidates, including former Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir, to become the new president. The President of Iceland has the authority to veto legislation and refer it to a national referendum; however, this power has been traditionally exercised in limited cases, typically on contentious bills, and the role remains largely symbolic as a unifying national figurea symbol of national unity. Consequently, in Iceland, individuals with less political background, such as those from academia or private sector, often assume the presidency rather than career politicians. Ms. Tómasdóttir, now the second female president in Iceland’s history after a twenty-eight-year gap, brings a wealth of experience as the first female president of the Icelandic Chamber of Commerce. Since 2018, she has served as CEO of the international NGO ‘B-Team,’ focusing on workplace equality, climate change, and improving corporate governance and transparency.

At the heart of post-apartheid South African politics, the African National Congress (ANC), which had consistently secured a majority of seats, experienced its first-ever dip below the majority threshold in the past 30 years, marking a historic election. The election results saw the African National Congress (ANC) with 40.3%, the business-focused Democratic Alliance (DA) with 21.62%, the “Spear of the Nation (MK)” party, formed by former president Zuma after leaving the ANC, with 14.71%, and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), leaning more nationalist and economically to the left compared to the ANC, with 9.47% of the votes. As a result, out of the 400 seats, the ANC secured 159 seats, the DA obtained 87 seats, MK won 58 seats, the EFF garnered 39 seats, and other parties claimed 57 seats. In South Africa, since the president is elected by Parliament, so President Ramaphosa, who has lost the majority, needs to form a stable coalition government to avoid the risk of impeachment. Increasing criticism towards the ANC can be attributed to chronic unemployment, income inequality, delays in infrastructure development, and the scandal revealing that President Ramaphosa, who emerged as a critic of former President Zuma’s corruption, had also hidden large sums of money in his home, resulting in a loss of trust from the public. If the ANC and DA were to form a coalition, the cost of policy alignment would be high, but there would be increased expectations for political reform.

In the May 26 runoff election for Lithuania's president (five-year term, with a one-time re-election limit), incumbent President Gitanas Nausėda defeated Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, who also contested in the 2019 presidential election, by a wide margin and was reelected with a record turnout of approximately 75%. Eight candidates, including both Nausėda and Šimonytė, ran in the first round, including an anti-Semitic politician and one opposing support for Ukraine; however, such candidates did not receive significant support and dropped out after the first round. Additionally, there was little difference between President Nausėda and Prime Minister Šimonytė on security matters, a key issue in the election. Both held similar stances on the Russian-Ukrainian war and defense spending, so this did not become a point of contention in the deciding vote, favoring the incumbent President Nausėda. As a result, the runoff election remained calm, largely unaffected by populism or Russian disinformation.

In relation to East Asia, President Nausėda's proposal to change the name of the Taiwan Representative Office to improve relations with China became a hot topic during the campaign. While this is not the first time he has made such a proposal, it remains to be seen whether there will be any shift in Lithuania's hard-line stance toward China in the future.

The Maldivian parliamentary election held on April 21st is expected to result in a landslide victory for the People’s National Congress (PNC), the party of President Muizzu, who won the presidential election last October, with the PNC securing 71 out of 93 seats. On the other hand, the opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) is expected to secure only 12 seats. The voter turnout was 72.9%, significantly lower than the 82% turnout in the previous election in 2019. President Muizzu, for the first time as president of the Maldives, visited China before India and seemed to prioritize relations with China over India. Additionally, he pursued policies aimed at severing ties with India, such as expelling Indian military personnel stationed in the Maldives (however, after negotiations with India, a resolution was reached with the replacement of military personnel with technicians for maintenance of rescue helicopters). This election helped further strengthen his stance and policies aimed at enhancing ties with China. The Democratic Party, led by pro-India former President Nasheed, who defected from the MDP, failed to secure any seats. Similarly, the new party founded by former President Yameen, who is a mentor to President Muizzu, also failed to win any seats. With this outcome, authority is now concentrated in the hands of President Muizzu, leading to increased dependence on China and a higher likelihood of escalating tensions with India.

India's general elections, held in seven rounds from late April to early June, were, contrary to prior expectations, a major defeat for the ruling Indian People's Party (BJP). The BJP lost its majority, reducing its number of seats from 303 before the election to 240 (with a total of 543 seats and a majority threshold of 272). Notably, the BJP lost ground in Uttar Pradesh, the most populous state, dropping from 62 seats to 33, and in Maharashtra, where Mumbai is located, from 23 to 9 seats. Despite this, the Modi government will enter its third term, retaining a majority when including the BJP's coalition partners.

The Modi administration obstructed the opposition's election campaign with strong-arm tactics, including the arrest (later bailed out) of Arvind Kejriwal, leader of the Common Man’s Party (AAP), a rival in the Delhi metropolitan area. Rahul Gandhi, the de facto leader of the largest opposition party, the Indian National Congress (INC), was disqualified from the lower house of India's Parliament before the election (later reinstated by the Supreme Court). The INC gained 99 seats, an increase of 47, while the AAP won three seats, gaining two.

Although the Modi administration has enacted repressive measures against Muslims and implemented forceful agrarian reforms with broad public support, economic growth has primarily benefited a small portion of the population. Persistent dissatisfaction with unresolved issues of inflation and unemployment appears to be the main reason for the BJP’s defeat. The electorate’s rejection of the increasingly authoritarian Modi administration is a testament to the resilience of Indian democracy.

In 2024, Croatia is facing three major elections: parliamentary, the European Parliament, and presidential elections. The first of these, the parliamentary election, took place on April 17th. The general election saw a competition between the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) led by incumbent pro-EU Prime Minister Plenković, and the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) led by former Prime Minister and President Milanović, who held a ceremonial role as president. Milanović’s SDP took a stance against supporting Ukraine, narrowing the gap between the two parties. According to the preliminary results, while the HDZ secured 61 seats (out of 151 in the unicameral parliament), decreasing its seats by 5, the SDP gained 42 seats, with an increase of 1 seat. The Homeland Movement, the emerging right-wing third party secured 14 seats with a decrease of 2 seats. Overall, the electoral landscape did not undergo significant changes. However, considering that Plenković’s HDZ failed to secure a majority in the 2020 general election and has been barely maintaining the government by garnering support from smaller parties, it won’t be easy to make up for the lost 5 seats through coalition with other parties. Furthermore, in the general election, the main focus shifted from policies on EU and Ukraine to domestic economic stagnation and repeated corruption allegations against the ruling party. This highlighted the intensity of criticism directed at the incumbent Plenković administration. The type of coalition the administration will form and the domestic measures it will take are likely to influence the European Parliamentary elections in June and the presidential elections in December.

In the Solomon Island general election held on April 17th, the pro-China political party ‘OUR Party’ led by Prime Minister Sogavare secured 15 seats out of 50 and became the largest party, while it failed to reach a majority. On the other hand, the opposition parties critical of China’s involvement, including the Solomon Islands Democratic Party, the Solomon Islands United Party, the Kadere Party, the Umi for Change, and the Democratic Alliance, collectively held 20 seats. Coalition negotiations between the ruling and opposition parties have intensified over independent members of parliament. The voter turnout was 86.17％, indicating the high level of interest and engagement in the election. The point of contention was signing of a military agreement with China, but with the ruling party being unable to secure a majority, reaching such an agreement has become more challenging. It could be said that the election demonstrated strong opposition to Prime Minister Sogavare’s decision of severing ties with Taiwan and normalizing relations with China, along with receiving substantial assistance from China.

The South Korean general election held on April 10th, with 300 seats at stake, saw the progressive opposition party, the Democratic Party of Korea, including its affiliated parties, achieve a landslide victory, further widening the division between the ruling party and the majority in the National Assembly. The Democratic Party of Korea garnered a majority with 175 seats (156 seats before the election), while the People Power Party, the minor ruling party, suffered resounding defeat securing only 108 seats (115 seats before the election). The Rebuilding Korea Party, the progressive party led by Mr. Cho Kuk, showed its presence as third power garnering 12 seats. In the election campaign, headwinds blew against the ruling party due to issues such as rapid inflation countermeasures, increasing medical school quotas in South Korea, and government scandals. The opposition fell short of the two-thirds majority required to impeach the president, but they are now capable of swift processing of billsin which the ruling and opposition parties confront. The ruling party had been below the majority threshold since before the election, and it was no longer able to prevent the opposition’s bills from being introduced independently, as it had hoped. The election results did not show any signs of rapid changes in the diplomatic and security policies of the Yun administration. However, if President Yun’s influence diminishes and the ruling party is unable to pass bills or budgets, the need to compromise with the progressive faction will become inevitable in many instances. As a result, there is a high possibility that the momentum behind diplomatic and security policies could be weakened.

On April 6th, the runoff vote for the presidential election was held in Slovakia. In the initial round of voting held on March 23rd, none of the candidates were able to secure a majority of support. There were voices predicting a close runoff between the top two candidates, with Ivan Korčok, a pro-Western figure and former Minister of Foreign and European Affairs, surpassing Peter Pellegrini, a former Prime Minister aligned with Prime Minister Fico, in the first round. However, it was Pellegrini who emerged victorious, securing approximately 53% of the vote, while Korčok remained at around 47%. Pellegrini has favored a “war or peace” rhetoric reminiscent of Hungary’s Orbán government, by accusing Korčok of being a “warmonger” and “wanting to drag Slovakia into the war”. Pellegrini’s victory, who advocated for “peace,” lent credence to the Fico government’s call for halting military support to Ukraine. The voter turnout in the runoff election was 61%, higher than the initial round (56%), and it is believed that Pellegrini gained additional support from the far-right by inciting fears of war. Furthermore, the President of Slovakia holds the authority of appointment of ministers and judges and veto over bills, thus playing a role of reining the government to some extent, despite that being a limited power. From a viewpoint of democracy, future intervention in the judiciary and media by the Fico administration will be a cause for concern.

The Senegalese Presidential Election, which was scheduled to be held on 25 February 2024, was plunged into chaos when the incumbent president Sall suddenly announced the indefinite postponement of the election. However, since the Constitutional Council deemed the postponement of the election unconstitutional, the election was held on 24 March, and the opposition candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye won with 54.28%of the votes. Amadou Ba, the successor of Sall, was soundly defeated, securing only 35.79%of the votes. The situation is gradually stabilizing as Faye assumed office on April 2nd. In Senegal, which has been considered one of the most stable democracies in West Africa, it was questioned whether the country would transition from presidential authoritarianism due to the tyranny of the president. However, the intervention of the judiciary proved effective, and the acceptance of defeat by President Sall’s coalition in the election demonstrated the resilience of Senegal’s democracy.

In Russia, the presidential election took place from March 15th to 17th, 2024. According to the Central Election Commission, Vladimir Putin, the incumbent President, secured 76.27 million votes, confirming his victory. The voting percentage was 87.28%, and the voter turnout was 77.49%, both of which are the highest on record.
In the 1993 constitution, the presidential term was set at four years with a maximum of two consecutive terms. However, with the constitutional amendment in 2008, the term was extended to six years, and further amendments in 2020 allowed former presidents to serve up to three terms. As a result, President Putin could potentially remain in office until 2036 at maximum. In this presidential election, the voting period was extended to three days, longer than usual, and electronic voting was introduced in an effort to increase voter turnout. However, candidates who clearly criticized the government were not allowed to run, and ultimately only four candidates (the lowest number in history) were permitted to stand for election. The voting percentage for Putin was 87.28% while those of other candidates were only approximately 4%, resulting in the expected “landslide victory” for incumbent President Putin.
In the election, voting was conducted in the four eastern and southern provinces of Ukraine occupied by Russia, with reports indicating that “around 90%” of the vote went to President Putin. However, as there were reports indicating that voters were coerced by armed groups, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi strongly criticized the situation as “a clear violation of international law that cannot be tolerated under any circumstances.”
Indeed, the Russian economy has shown positive growth of a 3.6% increase in 2023, attributed to factors such as increased military spending, a housing bubble, and expansion of natural resource exports. It is likely that these favorable economic indicators have garnered some level of approval from the Russian populace. At the same time, as constraints on freedoms, such as freedom of speech, have intensified even further due to the war, it is challenging to determine to what extent these figures of voter turnout and voting percentage truly reflect the reality.

The Portuguese General Election was held on March 10th in light of the dissolution of the parliament and the resignation of the prime minister due to a corruption scandal. While the Socialist Party (PS), the ruling center-left party decreased its number of seats from 129 to 77, the far-right party Chega (which means “Enough” in Portuguese), led by a former sports commentator André Ventura, increased its number of seats from 12 to 48, quadrupling from before the election and advancing to become the third-largest party.The center-right coalition led by the largest opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), secured only 79 seats, and neither of the two major parties, PS and PSD, were able to secure a majority (total seats being 230). Meanwhile, Chega increased its seats by absorbing voters’ dissatisfaction with corruption, soaring housing prices, and economic policies. Luís Montenegro, the leader of the PSD which narrowly secured the position of the largest party, denied the possibility of forming a coalition with Chega. Thus, there is a possibility that the new administration will be a minority government. Portugal has maintained relatively stable politics since democratization in 1974, with small policy differences between the two major parties. Yet it is now facing scrutiny over whether it can continue its stable political trajectory in the future.

The parliamentary (Majilis) elections in Iran held on March 1st have yet to be finalized due to 45 seats in constituencies, whose voter turnout below 20% being subject to re-vote, out of the total 490 seats. However, conservative factions have overwhelmingly secured a majority of the seats. Rather than the Iranian people choosing conservative factions, it is the result of the Guardian Council, which conducts eligibility reviews of candidates prior to elections (dominated by conservative clerics), disqualifying reformist and moderate candidates across the board. The course of events was similar to the 2021 presidential election, where Ebrahim Raisi became president as a result of the selection process by the Guardian Council. This repetition of patterns has led to disillusionment among the populace regarding the elections. The voter turnout was 41%, the lowest in history, with Tehran seeing a blank ballot rate of 25% among the votes cast, as well as other urban areas seeing similar trends. The “legitimacy of the system based on elections”, which has served as a compound structure of rule by Islamic clerics and republican governance, is being eroded in Iran.

The Indonesian Presidential election was held on February 14th, and while the election results are not yet finalised, Defence Minister Prabowo is considered likely to win with 60% of the votes (based on aggregation from major private surveys), pulling ahead of the two candidates. Prabowo stated to inherit the policy from the current Joko administration, which has maintained high approval ratings. He gained broad support by advocating for a path of economic growth, job creation, and advanced industrial policies. For the parliamentary election held on the same day, there is a possibility for Prabowo’s Golkar party to lose its spot as a major party and become a minority ruling party. Prabowo, who once faced suspicion of human rights violations during the Suharto regime, desperately cemented his power by adopting a more moderate stance during the campaign and seeking to leverage Joko’s popularity by nominating his son as vice-presidential candidate. As there is also lingering resentment over the nomination of presidential candidates towards the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, which emerged as the largest party in the parliamentary elections, the coalition-building that Prabowo aims for will not likely proceed smoothly. While the Indonesian democracy has been established as a response to the 1997 financial crisis, its implementation is gradually becoming unstable.

In the Finnish presidential election’s runoff vote held on February 11th after Finland acceded to NATO, Alexander Stubb, former Prime Minister of the centre-right National Coalition Party, defeated Pekka Haavisto, former Foreign Minister of the left-wing Social Democratic Party, to be elected as the new President.
Finland is operated under a parliamentary system of government with President serving as the head of state. The President’s term is 6 years and can be re-elected for up to 2 terms. Former Prime Minister Stubb will become the 13th President, succeeding the current President Niinistö, who was in office for 12 years. Finland shares a 1,300 kilometres border with Russia and presents a traditional anti-Russian sentiment. Under the previous presidency, the conventional neutral diplomatic stance changed,. However, in the runoff election, both right-leaning former Prime Minister Stubb and left-leaning former Foreign Minister Haavisto shared a pro-NATO stance of continuing the so-called ‘Niinistö path’ that materialised the accession to NATO. Former Prime Minister Stubb had taken a rather assertive stance towards Russia, particularly regarding issues such as NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements. Mr. Stubb is a political scientist who earned his PhD at the London School of Economics (LSE). He is also an internationally oriented figure who has served as Foreign Minister of Finland, and a member of the European Parliament, as well as holding a professorship at the European University Institute (EUI).

The general elections in Pakistan held on February 8th saw independent candidates affiliated with the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), led by former Prime Minister Khan, securing 97 seats. The Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN), led by former Prime Minister Sharif, won 76 seats, while the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), led by the son of former Prime Minister Bhutto, secured 54 seats. (The total number of seats is 265).
Although none of them were able to secure a majority, it is likely that the PMLN and PPP will form a coalition, allowing Sharif to return as prime minister. Pakistan’s military wields significant influence in politics, and to favor the PMLN, which is supported by the military, former Prime Minister Khan was convicted in court and forced to campaign from prison. Additionally, participating in elections under the PTI name was prohibited and even the use of a cricket bat in election campaigning, which represents Khan, a nationally revered cricketer, was banned. Despite such thorough measures, the group affiliated with the PTI still emerged as the largest party. This outcome can be attributed to factors such as societal divisions and resentment towards military intervention. However, amidst numerous challenges, including the recovery from widespread flooding across the country, a new government will find itself in a situation where it must navigate unstable governance.

President Aliyev, who achieved victory in last year’s Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and resolved the long-standing territorial issue by incorporating the region into Azerbaijan on January 1st, won the election with 92% of the votes. Formally, there were seven candidates running, but it was essentially an election heavily inclined towards a vote of confidence in President Aliyev. Since assuming office in 2003, President Aliyev has won five presidential elections. With the constitutional amendment in 2016 extending the presidential term to seven years, his presidency will extend into a long-term tenure until 2031. Azerbaijan, leveraging its wealth derived from abundant oil and natural gas resources, allocated substantial funds to its military, and relied on drones (the Bayraktar TB2) imported from its close ally Turkey to seize victory in the conflict against Armenia. As a result, Azerbaijan’s influence in the Caucasus region has grown, while Russia’s influence, which ended up abandoning Armenia, has diminished. Such geopolitical shifts and President Aliyev’s reinforcement of natural gas exports to Europe due to sanctions against Russia solidified his support.

In the presidential election held on February 4th, the incumbent president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, was re-elected with overwhelming support. He had changed the interpretation of the constitution, which stipulates a single term of 5 years for the presidency, to allow for re-election by dismissing judges of the Constitutional Court. President Bukele, who proudly refers to himself as the “world’s coolest dictator,” has gained popularity among the citizens for his authoritarian methods in restoring security, such as arresting gang members without warrants. Yet concerns are also voiced about his approach, as many innocent individuals have been arrested on false charges under his security policies. His initiatives, such as adopting Bitcoin as legal tender earlier than any other country in the world so as to break away from US dependency and facilitating remittances from migrant workers, which are crucial for the Salvadoran economy, have not resonated well with the citizens. The election left an impression of ongoing challenges to democracy and the rule of law, as it seemed to draw inspiration from the authoritarian security measures previously implemented by Philippine President Duterte and introduce mechanisms to maintain power beyond the provisions of the constitution, similar to the approaches taken by President Xi Jinping and President Putin.

In Tuvalu's general election on January 26, Prime Minister Kausea Natano, who led efforts to maintain relations with Taiwan and signed a security agreement with Australia, lost his seat. In contrast, Minister of Finance Seve Paeniu, a prime ministerial candidate advocating for a review of diplomatic relations, secured his seat unopposed. Former Prime Minister Enele Sopoaga, who supports maintaining ties with Taiwan and repealing the security agreement with Australia, also retained his seat.

Tuvalu lacks political parties, with coalitions of legislators forming on an issue-by-issue basis, so the election of a prime ministerial candidate is a significant focal point. Ultimately, newcomer Feleti Teo, with substantial experience in fisheries-related international organizations, won the prime minister's seat. He plans to continue the policy of maintaining relations with both Taiwan and Australia.

In the presidential election, Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won, defeating the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) candidate, Hou Yu-ih, and the third-party Taiwan People’s Party’s candidate, Ko Wen-je. Lai appealed for the continuation of the policies of the Tsai administration and garnered support from a wide range of voters who wanted to maintain the current status quo. The efforts of Hou and Ko to unify the opposition candidates before filing their candidacies failed, resulting in the inability to consolidate support from their respective voter bases. On the other hand, the legislative elections for the Legislative Yuan (with 113 seats) held concurrently with the presidential election saw the KMT winning 52 seats (an increase from 37 before the election), becoming the largest party. Meanwhile, the DPP saw a significant decrease in seats, securing only 51 seats (down from 62), and falling to the second-largest party. In the legislative elections, factors such as inflation, including rising housing prices, and a desire to check long-term incumbency are believed to have influenced the decision of Taiwanese voters. As a result, although the DPP emerged victorious in the presidential election, it became a minority party in the Legislative Yuan. This means that the DPP government will be forced to compromise with the opposition parties on budget proposals and legislations.

In January 2024, Bhutan, a small South Asian country bordering India and China, held a general election for the National Assembly. The People's Democratic Party (PDP), led by Tshering Tobgay, won 30 of the 47 seats in the assembly. The former ruling party, the Bhutan United Party (DNT), ranked only fourth in the preliminary elections held in November, forcing it to step down before the main election. The January main election was a contest between the PDP and the Bhutan Tendrel Party (BTP), which had secured the top two positions in the preliminary round, resulting in the PDP returning to power for the first time in five years.

Bhutan is known for its Gross National Happiness (GNH), yet recent social challenges, such as a sluggish economy and youth unemployment, have raised expectations for the Tobgay administration's economic policies. Tobgay is recognized as a pro-India figure, and economic cooperation with India is anticipated to increase. On the other hand, it will face a more strained relationship with China, as tensions are expected to rise due to the ongoing territorial dispute over the Doklam region along their shared border. (Takahiro Kamisuna)

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the main opposition party, boycotted the Bangladesh general election, leading to a victory for the ruling Awami League (AL) and the continuation of the incumbent Hasina administration. The BNP had protested against political repression by the government, including arrests of opposition activists, and had engaged in riots and destructive actions before the election. While there were no major disturbances on the election day, the opposition’s boycott aimed to cast doubt on the legitimacy of this election. In fact, while voter turnout was nearly 80% in the previous election, it was only around 40% (and possibly even lower) this time, according to election authorities. Despite significant economic growth in Bangladesh, inflation and price increases in food items have affected people’s lives, particularly due to the war between Russia and Ukraine. There is growing discontent among the populace. The task of governing for the Hasina administration may become even more challenging in the future.