Japan’s Upper House Election: Political Fragmentation and Growing Instability

Japan’s Upper House Election: Political Fragmentation and Growing Instability

Japan’s upper house (House of Councillors) election was held on July 20, with half of the seats contested. The long-governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito reduced their seats, dropping from 141 to 122, and narrowly failed to reach a majority (125 seats)

Although the election does not determine the government—as the House of Representatives holds the primary authority to appoint the prime minister—both houses share legislative powers, and the election served as a key test for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. While Komeito’s traditional organizational vote appeared to weaken, the LDP, under Prime Minister Ishiba’s leadership, failed to appeal to either voters frustrated by inflation or conservatives who had previously supported the second Shinzo Abe administration.

In contrast, the fringe far-right party Sanseito, running under the slogan “Japanese First,” surged to become the fourth-largest party in the upper house with 15 seats. Drawing lesson from Donald Trump, Germany’s AfD, France’s National Rally, and Reform UK, the party inconsistently yet effectively promoted the anti-globalist and ultra-nationalist stance in both online and offline campaigns. The media and experts frequently conducted fact-checks on their claims, yet this coverage appeared only to increase public attention and ultimately boosted the party’s support among swing voters and segments of the conservative base.

Voters dissatisfied with the current Ishiba administration also turned to newly established opposition parties, including the center-right Democratic Party for the People (which increased its seats from 9 to 22), the Conservative Party of Japan (from 0 to 2 seats), and Team Mirai, known for its technology-focused approach (from 0 to 1 seat). More traditional opposition parties, such as the conservative Japan Innovation Party and the populist-left Reiwa Shinsengumi also modestly increased their number of seats, while the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, a major liberal opposition party, failed to win any additional seats. These election results suggest an increase in the effective number of parties (ENP) and indicate growing fragmentation in Japan’s political landscape.

On July 21, Prime Minister Ishiba vowed to remain in office despite the election defeat.  However, doubts about the longevity of Ishiba’s administration are growing, following criticism from former Prime Minister Taro Aso and other LDP politicians over his failure to take responsibility. In addition, regardless of whether he remains in office or not, his handling of the government will be significantly difficult, with the LDP-Komeito coalition now a minority in both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors. It remains to be seen whether (1) the ruling coalition continues as a minority government, (2) the coalition is reorganized with a new partner, or (3) the coalition loses power by handing it over to opposition parties.

(Photo Credit: Tokyo Sports/Aflo)