Experts Andrew Capistrano
Visiting Research Fellow
Profile
Andrew Capistrano is a geopolitical risk consultant based in Tokyo, and Director of Research at PTB Global Advisors in Washington, DC, where he specializes in industrial policy, international trade and capital flows, and US-China relations. He is also a visiting scholar at the Waseda Institute of Political Economy and a visiting lecturer at the School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University. Previously, he worked at the US Embassy’s American Center Japan, and as a research associate at the Rebuild Japan Initiative Foundation/Asia-Pacific Initiative.
Dr Capistrano holds a BA from the University of California, Berkeley; an MA in political science (international relations and political economy) from Waseda University; and a PhD in international history from the London School of Economics. His academic work focuses on the diplomatic history of East Asia from the mid-19th to the mid-20th centuries, applying game-theoretic concepts to show how China's economic treaties with the foreign powers created unique bargaining dynamics and cooperation problems. During his doctoral studies he was a research student affiliate at the Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines (STICERD) in London.
Dr Capistrano holds a BA from the University of California, Berkeley; an MA in political science (international relations and political economy) from Waseda University; and a PhD in international history from the London School of Economics. His academic work focuses on the diplomatic history of East Asia from the mid-19th to the mid-20th centuries, applying game-theoretic concepts to show how China's economic treaties with the foreign powers created unique bargaining dynamics and cooperation problems. During his doctoral studies he was a research student affiliate at the Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines (STICERD) in London.
Expertise
Diplomatic history / Economic security / Industrial policy / Trade and capital flows / Game theory / International relations theory / International political economy / US-China relations
Publications
- “American Geoeconomics and International Relations in the Trump Era,” in Institute of Geoeconomics, ed., Introduction to Geoeconomics (Asahi Shinsho, 2026).
Research

Economic Security
Why Pax Silica Is About More Than AI Chips
IOG Economic Intelligence Report (Vol. 5 No. 13)

Visiting Research Fellow
Andrew Capistrano

Economic Security
Sovereign AI After Fugu: From Vertical Dominance to Horizontal Resilience
On 22 June, Tokyo-based Sakana AI launched “Fugu”, a multi-agent orchestration system accessed through a single model API (applica

Visiting Research Fellow
Andrew Capistrano

Economic Security
European Industry and the “Second China Shock”
IOG Economic Intelligence Report (Vol. 5 No. 11)

Visiting Research Fellow
Andrew Capistrano

Economic Security
Between the WTO and Decoupling: US-China Managed Interdependence
IOG Economic Intelligence Report (Vol. 5 No. 09)

Visiting Research Fellow
Andrew Capistrano

Economic Security
Geoeconomic Connectivity Index – user guide
The Geoeconomic Connectivity Index measures the extent to which a country is economically linked and integrated into global market

Visiting Research Fellow
Paul Nadeau


































